?
arrow_backBack to match
BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 22 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Sand King
Sand King
Yopaj · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 14 games
79%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lym- · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
456 picks · 180 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
357 picks · 200 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 554 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 821 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 478 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 612 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
303 picks · 241 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
288 picks · 363 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:17
Neon Esports 62%Army Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkem
57% · 42 games47% · 24 games
Anti-Magedb-
Anti-Mage
Windranger
WindrangerYopaj
45% · 32 games53% · 39 games
BrewmasterMamangDaya
Brewmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerEnryu
52% · 42 games45% · 71 game
ViperwoMy
Viper
Tusk
TuskTims
51% · 94 games51% · 157 games
Earth SpiritLym-
Earth Spirit
Lion
LionJaunuel
51% · 81 game
Game 2prediction correct24:18
Neon Esports 65%Army Geniuses 35%
The model gave 65% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 29:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkem
47% · 18 games51% · 91 game
Axedb-
Axe
Batrider
BatriderYopaj
49% · 79 games52% · 113 games
PhoenixMamangDaya
Phoenix
Dark Seer
Dark SeerEnryu
47% · 95 games43% · 164 games
MarswoMy
Mars
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
55% · 218 games52% · 214 games
LionLym-
Lion
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
53% · 172 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 76%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2