?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
73%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 20 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 65 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 52 games
56%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 44 games
66%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 33 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 931 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 422 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 642 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 942 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 652 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 531 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Tundra Esports 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPure~
56% · 152 games42% · 223 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Invoker
Invokerbzm
51% · 93 games47% · 175 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner33
53% · 249 games47% · 36 games
LargoBOOM
Largo
Tiny
TinyAri
49% · 249 games54% · 108 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
57% · 54 games46% · 255 games
Shadow Demonyamich
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1