BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs predictionTMTeam Mysteryloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mystery
Dragon Knightoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Eren · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 4 games
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 3 games
Spectreoften banned
mks- · 3 games
Execration
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
460 picks · 180 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 202 bans
Mars
350 picks · 557 bans
Puck
327 picks · 829 bans
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 477 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
305 picks · 243 bans
Enchantress
287 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:31
Team Mystery 40%Execration 60%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealermks-
Arc WardenPalos
Dragon KnightMercury
PuckBob
Death Prophetxiaoyu154
AxeLuciano
TuskEren
AbaddonRR
Game 2prediction correct35:48
Team Mystery 36%Execration 64%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMercury
Templar AssassinPalos
Faceless Voidmks-
DoomBob
Pugnaxiaoyu154
MarsLuciano
Ancient ApparitionEren
Winter WyvernRR
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2