BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs predictionTDTeam Dloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team D
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Axeoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Lion
Ponlo · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
Phoenix
Ponlo · 1 game
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 22 games
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 21 game
Sand King
Yopaj · 20 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
460 picks · 181 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 202 bans
Mars
350 picks · 558 bans
Puck
328 picks · 831 bans
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 476 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
305 picks · 243 bans
Enchantress
287 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Team D 29%Neon Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealervtFαded
TerrorbladeSkem
OraclePonlo
GyrocopterYopaj
47% · 24 games
Sand KingEnryu
54% · 38 games
MiranaTims
56% · 26 games
ClockwerkJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct26:34
Team D 30%Neon Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinvtFαded
Dragon KnightSkem
OraclePonlo
PuckYopaj
59% · 50 games
Winter WyvernEnryu
44% · 20 games
HoodwinkTims
39% · 20 games
GyrocopterJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 85%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2