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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Primeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 14 games
79%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lym- · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
33%

The Prime

Mirana
Mirana
BARBIE-Usagi · 4 games
0%
Lion
Lion
BARBIE-Usagi · 3 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Rusman · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BARBIE-Usagi · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
460 picks · 181 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
362 picks · 202 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 557 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 829 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 476 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 610 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
305 picks · 243 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
285 picks · 363 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 22%
Hero pool strength62% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:9
Army Geniuses 62%The Prime 38%
The model gave 62% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunadb-
54% · 25 games42% · 34 games
MagnusAzur4
Magnus
Slardar
SlardarMamangDaya
61% · 21 game57% · 21 game
Anti-MageRusman
Anti-Mage
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
60% · 45 games39% · 69 games
EnchantressBARBIE-Usagi
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLym-
52% · 33 games
Game 2prediction correct36:7
Army Geniuses 66%The Prime 34%
The model gave 66% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMamangDaya
64% · 35 games42% · 70 games
UrsaRusman
Ursa
Axe
Axedb-
54% · 52 games44% · 15 games
PugnaAzur4
Pugna
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
69% · 55 games39% · 99 games
EnchantressBARBIE-Usagi
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLym-
51% · 42 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 73%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2