BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 11 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 5 games
Brewmaster
kpii · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Execration
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
461 picks · 182 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 202 bans
Mars
351 picks · 557 bans
Puck
330 picks · 827 bans
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 476 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 608 bans
Tiny
305 picks · 243 bans
Enchantress
285 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:28
Team SMG 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenMidOne
LeshracBob
Brewmasterkpii
Phantom LancerPalos
BatriderMoon
Dragon KnightLuciano
Winter WyvernAhFu
Treant ProtectorRR
ClockwerkRoddgeee
Game 2prediction missed61:35
Team SMG 46%Execration 54%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiMidOne
LunaPalos
Enigmakpii
Ember SpiritBob
Winter WyvernMoon
ViperLuciano
PangolierAhFu
Ogre MagiRR
AbaddonRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2