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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 1:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spiritloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 28 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 27 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
62%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 931 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 422 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 642 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 942 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 652 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 531 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:8
Team Yandex 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenWatson
50% · 138 games45% · 114 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Viper
ViperChira JUNIOR
47% · 59 games50% · 85 games
SniperMirele
Sniper
Mars
MarsNoticed
50% · 235 games53% · 378 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenMalady
56% · 176 games46% · 161 game
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskSaksa
51% · 368 games50% · 238 games
Shadow ShamanPanto
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 52%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1