Claro Gaming Apu League Season 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 3:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Unknownloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unknown
Hoodwinksignature
Wij · 11 games
Snapfire
Wij · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Yadomi · 8 games
Viperoften banned
Prada · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 7 games
Lion
Wij · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
461 picks · 179 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 202 bans
Mars
350 picks · 556 bans
Puck
330 picks · 823 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 474 bans
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 605 bans
Tiny
304 picks · 243 bans
Enchantress
285 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Hokori
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total51% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:40
Hokori 49%Team Unknown 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 45:02.
Game 2prediction correct22:39
Hokori 49%Team Unknown 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 35:55.
Game 3prediction correct23:40
Hokori 49%Team Unknown 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 39:21.
Game 4prediction correct45:43
Hokori 49%Team Unknown 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 58:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 51%
Series resultHokori 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game4 of 4