PNXBET Invitationals Southeast Asia Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Lilgunloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 12 games
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
Grimstroke
343 · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
Dark Seersignature
Meracle · 6 games
Phoenixsignature
Poloson · 6 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
462 picks · 182 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 205 bans
Mars
351 picks · 556 bans
Puck
334 picks · 822 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 471 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
306 picks · 240 bans
Grimstroke
287 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 27%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:41
Nigma Galaxy SEA 71%Lilgun 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 34:34.
Game 2prediction missed20:45
Nigma Galaxy SEA 71%Lilgun 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Lilgun in 35:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2