DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction3G3D Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
DOGSENTwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
3D Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
DOGSENT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
560 picks · 662 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 334 bans
Dragon Knight
487 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
437 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 198 bans
Mars
380 picks · 514 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% 3D Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% DOGSENT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:39
3D Gaming 39%DOGSENT 61%
The model gave 61% on DOGSENT — the game was taken by DOGSENT in 27:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteDOGSENT · 61%
Series resultDOGSENT 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1