?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 35 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 30 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 22 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 21 game
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 21 game
71%

PARIVISION

Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 31 game
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 31 game
84%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 30 games
70%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Noticed · 29 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 24 games
79%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Satanic · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
514 picks · 358 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
361 picks · 637 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
354 picks · 412 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 470 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 179 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 350 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
305 picks · 587 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
305 picks · 229 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 82%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total70% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:24
Team Falcons 40%PARIVISION 60%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
47% · 39 games55% · 43 games
Lone DruidSatanic
Lone Druid
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
59% · 127 games44% · 59 games
Dark SeerNoticed
Dark Seer
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
55% · 30 games43% · 102 games
ViperNo[o]ne
Viper
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
52% · 84 games50% · 42 games
Bounty Hunter9Class
Bounty Hunter
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
42% · 35 games48% · 69 games
TechiesDukalis
Techies
Game 2prediction correct17:49
Team Falcons 40%PARIVISION 60%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 51:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSkiter
44% · 342 games49% · 44 games
Lone DruidSatanic
Lone Druid
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
48% · 409 games55% · 364 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
42% · 103 games52% · 285 games
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressCr1t-
46% · 250 games58% · 64 games
Pudge9Class
Pudge
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
56% · 118 games52% · 465 games
HoodwinkDukalis
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct39:56
Team Falcons 42%PARIVISION 58%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
50% · 134 games45% · 173 games
Shadow FiendSatanic
Shadow Fiend
Necrophos
NecrophosATF
47% · 95 games48% · 156 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Clinkz
ClinkzSkiter
60% · 150 games45% · 235 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSneyking
64% · 170 games44% · 163 games
Windranger9Class
Windranger
Lion
LionCr1t-
54% · 178 gameslittle data
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 70%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3