Army Geniuses vs Team D — prediction BIS · Dota 2

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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2

result vs prediction

Army Geniuseswin 2:0

series probability

70%30%

probability at match start · final 2:0

TDTeam Dloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spiritsignature

Lym- · 13 games

77%

Mirana

Lym- · 9 games

44%

Morphlingoften banned

MamangDaya · 7 games

43%

Puckoften banned

db- · 6 games

50%

Huskaroften banned

MamangDaya · 5 games

40%

Juggernautoften banned

db- · 5 games

60%

Marsoften banned

MamangDaya · 5 games

60%

Pugnaoften banned

woMy · 5 games

20%

Team D

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

464 picks · 184 bans

51%

Snapfire

369 picks · 206 bans

50%

Mars

352 picks · 560 bans

49%

Puck

339 picks · 829 bans

49%

Ancient Apparition

316 picks · 465 bans

56%

Tiny

308 picks · 240 bans

51%

Nyx Assassin

307 picks · 603 bans

58%

Grimstroke

292 picks · 275 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)47% vs 29%

Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total70% Army Geniuses

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct63:28

Army Geniuses 62%Team D 38%

The model gave 62% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 56:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo