BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 21 game
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 21 game
Sand King
Yopaj · 19 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 11 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 5 games
Brewmaster
kpii · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
471 picks · 189 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 208 bans
Mars
359 picks · 566 bans
Puck
343 picks · 839 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 461 bans
Tiny
313 picks · 243 bans
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 596 bans
Grimstroke
302 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 65%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect