BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TMTeam Mysteryloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 13 games
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
db- · 5 games
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 5 games
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
mks- · 2 games
Lion
Eren · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
477 picks · 189 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 209 bans
Mars
360 picks · 573 bans
Puck
347 picks · 849 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 461 bans
Tiny
318 picks · 245 bans
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 596 bans
Grimstroke
305 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 27%
Hero pool strength60% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 67%