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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Moon Chasersloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 8 games
38%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 8 games
63%

Moon Chasers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
477 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 209 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 573 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 849 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 461 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
318 picks · 245 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 596 bans
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
305 picks · 286 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%