BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs predictionTMTeam Mysteryloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mercury · 2 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 8 games
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
Brewmaster
kpii · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Elder Titan
Roddgeee · 5 games
Omniknight
kpii · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
478 picks · 188 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 210 bans
Mars
368 picks · 578 bans
Puck
348 picks · 861 bans
Tiny
322 picks · 246 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 458 bans
Grimstroke
315 picks · 293 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 594 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:45
Team Mystery 42%Team SMG 58%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaMercury
ViperMidOne
Spectremks-
Winter WyvernMoon
Dragon Knightxiaoyu154
PhoenixAhFu
Crystal MaidenEren
Beastmasterkpii
56% · 102 games
Nyx AssassinRoddgeee
Game 2prediction correct16:40
Team Mystery 45%Team SMG 55%
The model gave 55% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMercury
Wraith KingMidOne
Pugnaxiaoyu154
Winter WyvernMoon
Faceless Voidmks-
Night Stalkerkpii
PhoenixEren
AbaddonRoddgeee
54% · 244 games
LionAhFu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 63%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2