The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 2:3series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:3
OGwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 11 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 10 games
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 9 games
Grimstroke
Fata · 7 games
Medusasignature
Skiter · 7 games
OG
Hoodwink
Topson · 11 games
Alchemistsignature
Ceb · 10 games
Pucksignature
Topson · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 8 games
Lionsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
488 picks · 197 bans
Snapfire
383 picks · 211 bans
Mars
371 picks · 599 bans
Puck
360 picks · 881 bans
Grimstroke
330 picks · 311 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 249 bans
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 458 bans
Nyx Assassin
306 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
Tundra Esports 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 59:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNine
Naga SirenSumaiL
LunaSkiter
RazorTopson
Sand King33
TidehunterCeb
Nyx AssassinSneyking
MiranaSaksa
AbaddonFata
Disruptorn0tail
Game 2prediction missed13:36
Tundra Esports 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageSkiter
TerrorbladeSumaiL
LinaNine
TimbersawCeb
Tidehunter33
InvokerTopson
MiranaSneyking
HoodwinkSaksa
EnchantressFata
Nyx Assassinn0tail
Game 3prediction correct34:15
Tundra Esports 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSkiter
TimbersawCeb
Winter WyvernNine
Drow RangerSumaiL
Brewmaster33
ZeusTopson
Keeper of the LightSneyking
LionSaksa
AbaddonFata
Naga Sirenn0tail
Game 4prediction missed27:39
Tundra Esports 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 47:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSkiter
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Void SpiritNine
AxeCeb
MiranaSneyking
InvokerTopson
Brewmaster33
Dark WillowSaksa
Nyx AssassinFata
Shadow Demonn0tail
Game 5prediction missed17:34
Tundra Esports 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSkiter
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Winter WyvernNine
PangolierTopson
Tidehunter33
Dark SeerCeb
MiranaSneyking
Nyx AssassinSaksa
AbaddonFata
Disruptorn0tail
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Series resultOG 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5