The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
486 picks · 197 bans
Snapfire
384 picks · 210 bans
Mars
371 picks · 600 bans
Puck
361 picks · 884 bans
Grimstroke
334 picks · 311 bans
Tiny
327 picks · 248 bans
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 458 bans
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total52% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
Elephant 48%Team MagMa 52%
The model gave 52% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 33:21.
Game 2prediction correct28:22
Elephant 48%Team MagMa 52%
The model gave 52% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 41:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 52%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2