The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EHOMEwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 22 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 20 games
Tusk
xNova · 20 games
Grimstroke
Frisk · 15 games
Lion
Frisk · 12 games
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
483 picks · 193 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 209 bans
Mars
365 picks · 598 bans
Puck
360 picks · 878 bans
Grimstroke
333 picks · 310 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 452 bans
Nyx Assassin
300 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% EHOME
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total64% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:32
Elephant 36%EHOME 64%
The model gave 64% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 53:55.
Game 2prediction correct7:15
Elephant 36%EHOME 64%
The model gave 64% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 41:18.
Game 3prediction correct26:25
Elephant 36%EHOME 64%
The model gave 64% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 53:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 64%
Series resultEHOME 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3