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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 8 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
483 picks · 193 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
380 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 598 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
360 picks · 877 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 310 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 452 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 409 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:22
Royal Never Give Up 39%Aster.Aries 61%
The model gave 61% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 33:12.
Game 2prediction correct14:23
Royal Never Give Up 39%Aster.Aries 61%
The model gave 61% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 37:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 61%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2