The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titan
XCJ · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
September · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
September · 7 games
Mirana
September · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 6 games
Phoenix
XCJ · 6 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
482 picks · 192 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 209 bans
Mars
365 picks · 598 bans
Puck
360 picks · 877 bans
Grimstroke
334 picks · 310 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 453 bans
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:38
Sparking Arrow Gaming 37%Team MagMa 63%
The model gave 63% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 43:05.
Game 2prediction correct16:24
Sparking Arrow Gaming 37%Team MagMa 63%
The model gave 63% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 31:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 63%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2