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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Into The Breach

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Era · 13 games
77%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Xibbe · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ATF · 11 games
64%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Era · 11 games
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Xibbe · 10 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Supream^ · 9 games
67%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Xibbe · 9 games
33%

Spider Pigzs

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 15 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
31%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 12 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
480 picks · 192 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 596 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 876 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 309 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 454 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
Into The Breach 57%Spider Pigzs 43%
The model gave 57% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 33:38.
Game 2prediction correct49:43
Into The Breach 57%Spider Pigzs 43%
The model gave 57% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:01:33.
Game 3prediction missed24:39
Into The Breach 57%Spider Pigzs 43%
The model gave 57% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 1:00:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 57%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3