The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
477 picks · 191 bans
Snapfire
378 picks · 208 bans
Mars
364 picks · 592 bans
Puck
359 picks · 873 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 311 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 450 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:33
Elephant 52%Royal Never Give Up 48%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 1:47:20.
Game 2prediction missed31:24
Elephant 52%Royal Never Give Up 48%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 40:43.
Game 3prediction missed11:35
Elephant 52%Royal Never Give Up 48%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 36:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 52%
Series resultElephant 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3