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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Lion
Lion
pLAnet · 10 games
40%
Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 9 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Xwy · 8 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
zzq · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 7 games
29%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 11 games
27%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 8 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
475 picks · 190 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
378 picks · 208 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 590 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 872 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
332 picks · 308 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 450 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total51% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:23
Phoenix Gaming 52%Aster.Aries 48%
The model gave 52% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
55% · 110 games42% · 81 game
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXwy
51% · 257 games48% · 268 games
Puckphoenix
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
52% · 51 game48% · 102 games
Dragon Knight生死
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
Phoenixzzq
55% · 198 games48% · 165 games
Death ProphetFantasy
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction missed30:43
Phoenix Gaming 50%Aster.Aries 50%
The model gave 50% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 53:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
44% · 65 games51% · 8 games
Chaos KnightUlu
Chaos Knight
Razor
RazorXwy
66% · 48 games43% · 70 games
Dragon Knight生死
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
53% · 20 games49% · 42 games
Magnusphoenix
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinzzq
58% · 148 games44% · 161 game
LionFantasy
Lion
Game 3prediction missed20:23
Phoenix Gaming 52%Aster.Aries 48%
The model gave 52% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 43:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
54% · 91 game46% · 99 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXwy
52% · 229 games48% · 52 games
Magnus生死
Magnus
Phoenix
Phoenixzzq
49% · 174 games46% · 317 games
Puckphoenix
Puck
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
54% · 195 games52% · 221 game
LionFantasy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 51%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3