The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CDEC Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
473 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
377 picks · 207 bans
Mars
364 picks · 585 bans
Puck
356 picks · 874 bans
Grimstroke
331 picks · 310 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 446 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:43
Team MagMa 45%CDEC Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 41:12.
Game 2prediction correct15:24
Team MagMa 45%CDEC Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 42:22.
Game 3prediction correct28:40
Team MagMa 45%CDEC Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 45:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 55%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3