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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 16 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
31%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
62%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 11 games
45%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
45%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 12 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 12 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
472 picks · 190 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 587 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 875 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 310 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 447 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:16
Spider Pigzs 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKoma`
46% · 49 games59% · 82 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Zeus
ZeusNo!ob
25% · 4 games54% · 72 games
Monkey Kingqojqva
Monkey King
Mars
MarsFunn1k
43% · 183 games56% · 59 games
Sand KingBoxi
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLeBronDota
44% · 41 game46% · 65 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Mirana
Miranadnz
53% · 136 games53% · 135 games
EnchantressTaiga
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct27:36
Spider Pigzs 43%Team Liquid 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
50% · 46 games58% · 48 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Luna
LunaKoma`
37% · 42 games63% · 4 games
Lone Druidqojqva
Lone Druid
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightdnz
58% · 14 games54% · 104 games
SnapfireTaiga
Snapfire
Mars
MarsFunn1k
46% · 138 games49% · 41 game
SlardarBoxi
Slardar
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
38% · 37 games58% · 80 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct14:26
Spider Pigzs 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKoma`
48% · 169 games61% · 98 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperNo!ob
42% · 79 games51% · 59 games
Razorqojqva
Razor
Pangolier
PangolierFunn1k
51% · 127 games60% · 53 games
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
Keeper of the Light
Lion
Liondnz
44% · 212 games49% · 236 games
MarsBoxi
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLeBronDota
47% · 52 games48% · 193 games
PhoenixTaiga
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3