?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 29 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Aramis · 21 game
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 17 games
82%

OG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Topson · 8 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Topson · 8 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 7 games
86%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 7 games
86%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
470 picks · 191 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 587 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 874 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 310 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 445 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:30
ViKin.gg 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 55:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeShad
45% · 86 games46% · 94 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Invoker
InvokerBOOM
60% · 88 games46% · 66 games
Earth SpiritTopson
Earth Spirit
Broodmother
BroodmotherKheZu
62% · 29 games47% · 50 games
MagnusCeb
Magnus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAramis
53% · 79 games41% · 96 games
LinaSaksa
Lina
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSeleri
55% · 111 games50% · 87 games
Oraclen0tail
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed18:21
ViKin.gg 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by OG in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeShad
42% · 95 games55% · 79 games
MedusaSumaiL
Medusa
Lina
LinaBOOM
43% · 108 games48% · 178 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Venomancer
VenomancerKheZu
44% · 33 games48% · 19 games
AlchemistCeb
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAramis
50% · 184 games50% · 194 games
LionSaksa
Lion
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSeleri
61% · 142 games53% · 92 games
Clockwerkn0tail
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed6:16
ViKin.gg 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by OG in 27:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreShad
53% · 24 games52% · 40 games
Drow RangerSumaiL
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBOOM
51% · 119 games61% · 67 games
RazorTopson
Razor
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKheZu
50% · 49 games46% · 33 games
AlchemistCeb
Alchemist
Lion
LionAramis
46% · 119 games52% · 114 games
LinaSaksa
Lina
Abaddon
AbaddonSeleri
48% · 55 games45% · 112 games
Oraclen0tail
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 75%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3