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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EHOMEwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
Fantasy · 6 games
17%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 20 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 15 games
40%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 11 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
468 picks · 191 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 586 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 872 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 308 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 445 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% EHOME
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
Aster.Aries 45%EHOME 55%
The model gave 55% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlu
44% · 127 games52% · 86 games
MedusaSylar
Medusa
Bristleback
Bristleback生死
51% · 63 games49% · 225 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Puck
Puckphoenix
48% · 409 games44% · 58 games
AxeChalice
Axe
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFantasy
54% · 126 games54% · 127 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
55% · 229 games
LionFrisk
Lion
Game 2prediction correct37:40
Aster.Aries 45%EHOME 55%
The model gave 55% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 56:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinphoenix
57% · 92 games56% · 34 games
SpectreSylar
Spectre
Luna
LunaUlu
49% · 72 games52% · 47 games
RazorXm
Razor
Kunkka
Kunkka生死
46% · 48 games44% · 98 games
MarsChalice
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
48% · 141 game57% · 37 games
Dark WillowFrisk
Dark Willow
46% · 137 games
LionxNova
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 58%
Series resultEHOME 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2