The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
464 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
Mars
360 picks · 580 bans
Puck
353 picks · 866 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 307 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 442 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total52% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:15
Elephant 52%Team MagMa 48%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 34:50.
Game 2prediction missed34:14
Elephant 52%Team MagMa 48%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 36:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 52%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2