The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Lion
YamSun · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 7 games
Miranasignature
FrancisLee · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
EternaLEnVy · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
FrancisLee · 4 games
Arkosh Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Lion
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
mason · 1 game
Viperoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
469 picks · 188 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
Mars
369 picks · 590 bans
Puck
359 picks · 885 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 305 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 436 bans
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 405 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
Eternity 37%Arkosh Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Eternity in 30:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYamSun
VisageAui_2000
MiranaFrancisLee
ClockwerkJubei
Game 2prediction missed26:21
Eternity 43%Arkosh Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Eternity in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYamSun
GyrocopterAui_2000
Nyx AssassinFrancisLee
Crystal MaidenJubei
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 74%
Series resultEternity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2