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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
bumble bEE'swin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 11 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
yarintheslayer · 8 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undying
Bloody Nine · 5 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Bloody Nine · 4 games
50%

bumble bEE's

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ryoya · 6 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
ppd · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
460 picks · 190 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 585 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
364 picks · 875 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 245 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 432 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 402 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 23%
Hero pool strength56% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:36
Team DogChamp 59%bumble bEE's 41%
The model gave 59% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierlukiluki
51% · 82 games49% · 15 games
SpectreEternaLEnVy
Spectre
Rubick
Rubickyarintheslayer
53% · 108 games47% · 35 games
Dragon KnightRyoya
Dragon Knight
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorBloody Nine
58% · 44 games47% · 33 games
ViperKingrd
Viper
44% · 34 games
Winter WyvernMoo
Winter Wyvern
48% · 117 games
Nyx AssassinZfreeK
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed7:24
Team DogChamp 58%bumble bEE's 42%
The model gave 58% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 21:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierlukiluki
44% · 114 games47% · 130 games
Death ProphetRyoya
Death Prophet
Lion
Lionyarintheslayer
45% · 219 games58% · 53 games
LunaEternaLEnVy
Luna
Abaddon
AbaddonBloody Nine
45% · 107 games63% · 82 games
Centaur WarrunnerKingrd
Centaur Warrunner
49% · 35 games
Treant ProtectorMoo
Treant Protector
59% · 140 games
Nyx AssassinZfreeK
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 65%
Series resultbumble bEE's 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2