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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DogChampwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 10 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
TingleK1ng · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
TingleK1ng · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
TingleK1ng · 4 games
25%

Team DogChamp

Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 11 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 7 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undying
Bloody Nine · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
yarintheslayer · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
460 picks · 190 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 581 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
363 picks · 870 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 244 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 427 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 402 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)14% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:6
The Cut 42%Team DogChamp 58%
The model gave 58% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by The Cut in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaScourge McDuck
63% · 22 games36% · 10 games
Pangolierlukiluki
Pangolier
little data
Techiesyarintheslayer
Techies
38% · 12 games
OracleBloody Nine
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct8:22
The Cut 42%Team DogChamp 58%
The model gave 58% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 21:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkScourge McDuck
33% · 5 gameslittle data
Dragon Knightlukiluki
Dragon Knight
little data
Hoodwinkyarintheslayer
Hoodwink
67% · 5 games
AbaddonBloody Nine
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct20:24
The Cut 46%Team DogChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorScourge McDuck
60% · 17 gameslittle data
Hoodwinklukiluki
Hoodwink
45% · 7 games
Rubickyarintheslayer
Rubick
36% · 10 games
AbaddonBloody Nine
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 65%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3