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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 9 games
56%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
kpii · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
kpii · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
29%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 6 games
83%

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 13 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
456 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 582 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 866 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 303 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 243 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
307 picks · 425 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:41
Team SMG 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
58% · 34 games50% · 78 games
Templar AssassinYowe
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoon
52% · 54 games46% · 107 games
Ember SpiritPalos
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkpii
56% · 40 games47% · 63 games
ViperForce
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressAhFu
50% · 72 games48% · 44 games
Treant ProtectorRR
Treant Protector
Lion
LionRoddgeee
50% · 92 games
Game 2prediction missed34:8
Team SMG 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMidOne
47% · 11 games52% · 61 game
LifestealerPalos
Lifestealer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoon
50% · 55 games42% · 79 games
Dragon KnightYowe
Dragon Knight
Razor
Razorkpii
64% · 23 games45% · 51 game
MagnusForce
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAhFu
50% · 92 games52% · 38 games
Treant ProtectorRR
Treant Protector
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRoddgeee
53% · 48 games
Game 3prediction correct12:42
Team SMG 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderMoon
51% · 43 games47% · 37 games
TerrorbladePalos
Terrorblade
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMidOne
66% · 15 games50% · 62 games
InvokerYowe
Invoker
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkpii
41% · 12 games49% · 33 games
ViperForce
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressAhFu
42% · 67 games65% · 50 games
Winter WyvernRR
Winter Wyvern
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRoddgeee
44% · 45 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 61%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3