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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 26 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 20 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
453 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 581 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 863 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 303 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 243 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
305 picks · 424 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Fnatic 38%Neon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:48.
Game 2prediction correct24:33
Fnatic 38%Neon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 46:33.
Game 3prediction correct32:8
Fnatic 38%Neon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 62%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3