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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 15 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Sam_H · 12 games
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
78%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
56%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
25%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 8 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
343 · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
449 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
372 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 580 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
360 picks · 864 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 303 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 242 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
304 picks · 424 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Omega Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:40
Omega Esports 44%Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 57:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMac
55% · 51 game48% · 61 game
SpectreinYourdreaM
Spectre
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTino-
50% · 65 games42% · 70 games
Dark SeerMeracle
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsSam_H
43% · 165 gameslittle data
MeepoAlaCrity
Meepo
Lion
Lioncml
58% · 181 game43% · 161 game
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
60% · 170 games
Nyx AssassinJhocam
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Omega Esports 45%Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
49% · 100 games57% · 15 games
Drow RangerinYourdreaM
Drow Ranger
Bristleback
BristlebackMac
52% · 55 games47% · 158 games
PuckAlaCrity
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSam_H
54% · 195 games50% · 54 games
TidehunterMeracle
Tidehunter
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverncml
46% · 86 games55% · 84 games
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
46% · 125 games
LionJhocam
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 60%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2