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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
496 Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 13 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 7 games
29%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 7 games
14%

496 Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Bombi · 6 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bombi · 4 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
447 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
372 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 580 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 862 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
335 picks · 302 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 240 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
303 picks · 420 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:34
Execration 59%496 Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 45:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPalos
50% · 52 games50% · 160 games
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
Nyx Assassin
Doom
DoomForce
61% · 21 game43% · 47 games
Winter WyvernBombi
Winter Wyvern
Puck
PuckYowe
46% · 88 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRR
57% · 46 games
Game 2prediction correct46:37
Execration 56%496 Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:03:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
65% · 36 games44% · 69 games
Winter WyvernBombi
Winter Wyvern
Puck
PuckYowe
53% · 87 games41% · 171 game
Earth SpiritNARMAN
Earth Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightForce
49% · 33 games
Phoenix
PhoenixRR
65% · 84 games
Game 3prediction correct41:13
Execration 57%496 Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectrePalos
40% · 29 games46% · 101 game
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
Nyx Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetYowe
56% · 61 game51% · 51 game
Winter WyvernBombi
Winter Wyvern
Axe
AxeForce
50% · 41 game
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRR
62% · 21 game
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 64%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3