The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4 Zoomerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Slarkoften banned
mason · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
mason · 1 game
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
448 picks · 189 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 207 bans
Mars
364 picks · 581 bans
Puck
362 picks · 862 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 302 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 240 bans
Ancient Apparition
302 picks · 419 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:18
Arkosh Gaming 23%4 Zoomers 77%
The model gave 77% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 45:38.
Game 2prediction correct43:14
Arkosh Gaming 23%4 Zoomers 77%
The model gave 77% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 35:33.
Game 3prediction correct11:28
Arkosh Gaming 23%4 Zoomers 77%
The model gave 77% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 29:31.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 77%
Series result4 Zoomers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3