The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlersloss 1:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
448 picks · 189 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 207 bans
Mars
364 picks · 580 bans
Puck
362 picks · 861 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 302 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 240 bans
Ancient Apparition
301 picks · 418 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 26%
Hero pool strength50% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:23
D2 Hustlers 76%simply TOOBASED 24%
The model gave 76% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 44:39.
Game 2prediction missed37:22
D2 Hustlers 76%simply TOOBASED 24%
The model gave 76% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 41:30.
Game 3prediction missed33:19
D2 Hustlers 76%simply TOOBASED 24%
The model gave 76% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 37:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 76%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3