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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
bumble bEE'sloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eternity

Lion
Lion
YamSun · 8 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
EternaLEnVy · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
FrancisLee · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
0%

bumble bEE's

Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
ppd · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ryoya · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ppd · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
453 picks · 189 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 582 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
363 picks · 869 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 302 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 240 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
299 picks · 419 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 25%
Hero pool strength51% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% bumble bEE's
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:15
Eternity 42%bumble bEE's 58%
The model gave 58% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by Eternity in 1:03:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYamSun
48% · 59 games47% · 18 games
RazorEternaLEnVy
Razor
Mirana
MiranaFrancisLee
51% · 104 games52% · 60 games
Templar AssassinRyoya
Templar Assassin
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionJubei
50% · 96 games49% · 54 games
BeastmasterKingrd
Beastmaster
56% · 36 games
Winter WyvernMoo
Winter Wyvern
47% · 91 game
Nyx AssassinZfreeK
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed46:31
Eternity 43%bumble bEE's 57%
The model gave 57% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by Eternity in 56:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYamSun
48% · 51 game46% · 49 games
LeshracKingrd
Leshrac
Mirana
MiranaFrancisLee
49% · 101 game47% · 18 games
RazorEternaLEnVy
Razor
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionJubei
55% · 107 games52% · 80 games
Ember SpiritRyoya
Ember Spirit
48% · 20 games
Treant ProtectorMoo
Treant Protector
50% · 92 games
Nyx AssassinZfreeK
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoritebumble bEE's · 65%
Series resultEternity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2