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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omega Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

Omega Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 15 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Sam_H · 11 games
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
450 picks · 187 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 578 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 867 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 302 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
323 picks · 240 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
296 picks · 417 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 400 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Omega Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:11
Fnatic 52%Omega Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 35:05.
Game 2prediction missed34:35
Fnatic 52%Omega Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 1:05:07.
Game 3prediction missed36:25
Fnatic 52%Omega Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 37:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 52%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3