The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultrawin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EBex-South Built Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
Sand King
Jamesy · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
ex-South Built Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
451 picks · 188 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
Mars
372 picks · 578 bans
Puck
365 picks · 867 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 303 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 240 bans
Ancient Apparition
295 picks · 417 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% ex-South Built Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% ex-South Built Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:34
Cignal Ultra 46%ex-South Built Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on ex-South Built Esports — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 55:11.
Game 2prediction missed34:9
Cignal Ultra 46%ex-South Built Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on ex-South Built Esports — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 27:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-South Built Esports · 54%
Series resultCignal Ultra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2