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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
496 Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 17 games
71%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 8 games
38%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
14%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 6 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%

496 Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
75%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Bombi · 6 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bombi · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
446 picks · 188 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 578 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
368 picks · 867 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
334 picks · 306 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 240 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 399 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 417 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:31
Army Geniuses 49%496 Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedb-
47% · 45 games41% · 121 game
GrimstrokeBombi
Grimstroke
Doom
DoomMamangDaya
64% · 28 games53% · 118 games
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
Nyx Assassin
Slardar
SlardarwoMy
53% · 31 game
Lion
LionLym-
49% · 135 games
Game 2prediction correct6:20
Army Geniuses 46%496 Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunadb-
37% · 24 games55% · 53 games
Ancient ApparitionBombi
Ancient Apparition
Windranger
WindrangerMamangDaya
41% · 19 games52% · 78 games
Earth SpiritNARMAN
Earth Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightwoMy
53% · 30 games
Mirana
MiranaLym-
50% · 58 games
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 53%
Series result496 Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2