The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
SG e-sportswin 3:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Unknownloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unknown
Snapfire
Wij · 10 games
Hoodwinksignature
Wij · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 7 games
Viperoften banned
Prada · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Robo-Z · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
459 picks · 195 bans
Mars
399 picks · 606 bans
Puck
398 picks · 903 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 326 bans
Tiny
329 picks · 243 bans
Ancient Apparition
298 picks · 421 bans
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Unknown
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:13
SG e-sports 44%Team Unknown 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 37:47.
Game 2prediction correct22:36
SG e-sports 44%Team Unknown 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 48:56.
Game 3prediction correct32:42
SG e-sports 44%Team Unknown 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 57:38.
Game 4prediction correct31:32
SG e-sports 44%Team Unknown 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 44:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 56%
Series resultSG e-sports 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game4 of 4