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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Unknownwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Nuages · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Jupiter · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jupiter · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
mini-` · 4 games
25%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Benny · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
75%

Team Unknown

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wij · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 6 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Sacred · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
459 picks · 195 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 605 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 902 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 326 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 242 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
296 picks · 421 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 400 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total59% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:37
Infinity Esports 41%Team Unknown 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 52:26.
Game 2prediction correct4:31
Infinity Esports 41%Team Unknown 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 17:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 59%
Series resultTeam Unknown 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2