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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Unknownwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 28 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkMago · 20 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Oscar · 16 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 16 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panda · 15 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 14 games
71%

Team Unknown

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wij · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Prada · 5 games
80%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Sacred · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
456 picks · 195 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 598 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 898 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
328 picks · 239 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
295 picks · 416 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 399 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total68% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:39
NoPing VPN 61%Team Unknown 39%
The model gave 61% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 47:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunahFn
52% · 55 games42% · 80 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
48% · 38 games51% · 70 games
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
Storm Spirit
Viper
ViperOscar
53% · 64 games52% · 81 game
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaMatthew
53% · 108 games45% · 54 games
Dark WillowWij
Dark Willow
Abaddon
AbaddonPanda
57% · 81 game45% · 61 game
ClockwerkPrada
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct39:23
NoPing VPN 61%Team Unknown 39%
The model gave 61% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenhFn
49% · 23 games53% · 52 games
GyrocopterPakazs
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
48% · 42 games49% · 148 games
Void SpiritRobo-Z
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsOscar
51% · 185 games52% · 39 games
HoodwinkWij
Hoodwink
Viper
ViperPanda
49% · 55 games50% · 102 games
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaMatthew
50% · 93 games50% · 57 games
Winter WyvernPrada
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction missed24:37
NoPing VPN 61%Team Unknown 39%
The model gave 61% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterhFn
48% · 35 games53% · 86 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderDarkMago
51% · 37 games45% · 47 games
KunkkaRobo-Z
Kunkka
Mars
MarsOscar
52% · 123 games55% · 125 games
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Lion
LionMatthew
45% · 124 games57% · 55 games
HoodwinkWij
Hoodwink
Abaddon
AbaddonPanda
44% · 73 games50% · 79 games
ViperPrada
Viper
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 68%
Series resultTeam Unknown 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3