The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Elder Titan
Nuages · 7 games
Mirana
Jupiter · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
Jupiter · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
mini-` · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
456 picks · 195 bans
Mars
396 picks · 596 bans
Puck
395 picks · 897 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 325 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 239 bans
Ancient Apparition
295 picks · 415 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 399 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:25
Infinity Esports 50%SG e-sports 50%
The model gave 50% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 32:24.
Game 2prediction correct29:25
Infinity Esports 50%SG e-sports 50%
The model gave 50% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 40:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 50%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2