The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoysloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoPing VPNwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
NoPing VPN
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 26 games
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 23 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 18 games
Tiny
DarkMago · 18 games
Marssignature
Oscar · 16 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 15 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 14 games
Oracleoften banned
Panda · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
453 picks · 194 bans
Mars
396 picks · 589 bans
Puck
392 picks · 897 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 325 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 239 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 397 bans
Ancient Apparition
292 picks · 411 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:20
EgoBoys 20%NoPing VPN 80%
The model gave 80% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 31:43.
Game 2prediction correct6:33
EgoBoys 20%NoPing VPN 80%
The model gave 80% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 25:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 80%
Series resultNoPing VPN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2