?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Unknownloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Nuages · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Jupiter · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jupiter · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nuages · 4 games
75%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
mini-` · 3 games
33%

Team Unknown

Mars
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Prada · 9 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Wij · 5 games
20%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
450 picks · 194 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 587 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 890 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
372 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
348 picks · 324 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 238 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 396 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 402 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total57% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
Infinity Esports 43%Team Unknown 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 24:06.
Game 2prediction correct27:39
Infinity Esports 43%Team Unknown 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 41:21.
Game 3prediction correct29:14
Infinity Esports 43%Team Unknown 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 37:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 57%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3