The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 25 games
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 23 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 18 games
Tiny
DarkMago · 18 games
Marssignature
Oscar · 15 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 15 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 14 games
Oracleoften banned
Panda · 12 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
449 picks · 194 bans
Mars
391 picks · 584 bans
Puck
391 picks · 887 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
348 picks · 324 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 236 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 396 bans
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:17
NoPing VPN 64%Hokori 36%
The model gave 64% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 31:58.
Game 2prediction correct48:25
NoPing VPN 64%Hokori 36%
The model gave 64% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 40:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 64%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2