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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Latam Defendersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

No games played over 6 months.

Latam Defenders

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 7 games
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Cucahook · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Cucahook · 6 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Moonlight · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
444 picks · 193 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 577 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 881 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 323 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 233 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
286 picks · 394 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:12
Hokori 72%Latam Defenders 28%
The model gave 72% on Hokori — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 32:26.
Game 2prediction correct
Hokori 72%Latam Defenders 28%
The model gave 72% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 72%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2